I agree with most of what you said, except...
I think it's as near a certainty as anything can be that humanity will never abandon the moon. It's a very large and very close piece of real estate. From a human space exploration standpoint, it's very low hanging fruit. I can't see us skipping past it even in the unlikely event enormous ice deposits are not found at the poles. So imo a lunar orbiting space station is practically a certainty too at some point in the future. And don't be so sure it couldn't be used as a send off station for deeper space missions. Lower gravity and no atmospheric drag might actually work in its favor.