Current Events — HabitableZone

Current Events » in reply to Re: Fact-checking Arizona

You're welcome; and DamnTikiWiki again

Thanks for letting me know the images weren't showing. I uploaded them to my personal tikiwiki file area, which I can only blame on the residual effects of the flu. I should've known better. They're uploaded somewhere else, so I think they should show.

Reasonable response; thanks. The only point I want to pursue further is my "mapping thesis" hypothesizing higher crime rates near the border if illegal immigration is a factor.

Here's the map again (and we'll find out if the new link works):

http://habitablezone.net/robert/azcrime-map-1.jpg

neighborhoodscout.com

My assumption was that if all other factors, such as population density, are controlled, then crime rates should be higher near the border if in fact illegals are more prone to commit crimes. My thesis has a temporal dimension: These people are in motion, presumably travelling north, and there will be fewer and fewer of them the farther north you go, as they find opportunities for work as they go. So if you compare counties with similar population densities at the northern and southern borders, you'll see the southern counties exhibiting higher crime rates. If there's the causal relationship the anti-immigration boosters claim.

Hmmm...that comparison may not be so easy. These maps that provide a statewide summary for free turn out to want money to show the "neighborhood"-level data. I'm sure the data by-county is out there somewhere though. In the meantime, using the live Google mapping widget to identify counties does seem to back up the idea, at least based on my memory of the layout of Arizona. E.g.: Ajo in the south and Fredonia in the north are similarly rural and have similar crime rates. Urban areas like Yuma (southern border) and Flagstaff (north central) have similar crime rates (though, in detail, Flagstaff turns out to have more violent crime, 8.45/100K, than Yuma at 7.92/100K).

Two areas on the southeast border looked like they might falsify my thesis: Douglas and Bisbee, which on the map show a high crime rate. But the detail makes me wonder whether there's an anomaly in the way they aggregate statistics. Both areas have violent crime rates below the Arizona average, and property crimes equal to the average, despite the color key. (Of course, overall, Arizona's crime rate is higher than the national average, to put it into perspective.)

I think this line of inquiry is going to need more work, but I don't have the time right now. Feel free to pick up the ball, Tom. All the crime stats are derived from the Uniform Crime Reports all law enforcement agencies have to file with, I believe, the Justice Department. The DOJ Web site may have more info.

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