Current Events — HabitableZone

Current Events » in reply to Then there's Russia...

Re: And the power to send you to the gulag.

I don't think that much has changed in Russia, or China, for that matter, just because they've taken the capitalist road. It's still the same kind of people, and often, the same people, in charge. You don't change the society, history and power structure in a country overnight just by altering the ideology. In my opinion, ideology is just like nationalism, it's what you tell the rubes when you need them to get to work, or go to war.

If it makes you feel any better, it works going the other way, too. They got rid of a right wing dictator in Cuba and wound up with a left wing one. I remember telling my right wing friends back in the 60s and 70s "Do you really think our problems with China and Russia are just going to go away if they magically give up Communism? Man, our troubles will only just be starting." At the time, I thought I was just busting their chops, it never occurred to me someday I would be saying "I told you so."

China and Russia are essentially gangster states, Russia probably more so than China. Neither is as bad as Cuba or N Korea, but they are still run by thugs. At least, in China, the Party still calls the shots. In Russia, its a syndicate with an ex-KGB dude as Godfather. From the point of view of countries that have to deal with them, China will be easier. There is one group in charge and you can count on them doing what they think is best for them. At least they will be predictable, and rational. In Russia, national behavior will be dictated by either a compromise between internal forces or it will be the result of internecine conflict and will make no sense at all; totally unpredictable. In other words, we'll be dealing with crazy people. Maybe what's happened is that the smart Commies have realized that the West will always sell itself down the river as long as it thinks its good for business.

As for other problems for the West, Cold War concerns will play little or no part. Our biggest headache right now is from the ruthless merchant princes and wacko fundamentalist nutjobs of the Middle East. We've got Ivy League-trained businessmen and religious fanatics to deal with instead of Party apparatchiks. Give me Khruschev and Mao any day. I think the only place where we are likely to see traditional Communist vs Capitalist conflicts shaping up is in Latin America. The Far East is now undergoing an economic boom, but Latin America is still run by private oligarchies (gangster states) but mostly inhabited by vast numbers of desperately poor people, with no end in sight. That is the environment where Communism has always flourished. Keep an eye on Brazil, especially.

Lee, the Cold War is over, we won. It's a whole new ball game now. Think of it like the years right after World War II, we had just defeated Fascism but a new threat, the Cold War, rapidly established itself. We didn't defeat the Reds by pretending they were
Nazis, and we won't get through the 21st century by pretending all our enemies are Reds and only Reds are our enemies. That's why we got caught flat-footed on 9/11; we were training to fight the wrong enemy. The only thing we can count on is that there will always be enemies.

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