What IS the stock market up to? Does it really signify anything, or is it just driven by random market forces that in the long run mean nothing?

After climbing heroically out of the depths, for the last half year or so it's leveled off and been oscillating erratically between 10K and 11K, or right about where it was at the start of the Great Recession of late 2008.

I keep displaying the curve at a variety of scales and samplings and all I see is fractal noise, there appears to be no evidence of intelligent life behind it. Does anyone have any idea what is going on? Does anyone even think it means anything? I know there never is any shortage of shrewd analysis AFTER it does something spectacular, but can we actually make any predictions based on observing its current behavior?

Seriously, I know the answer to that last question: if anyone actually could make sense of this they certainly wouldn't share it with anyone else. But you know what I mean. Is "market analysis" a futile exercise, or does it make any sense at all? I suspect the Dow is not just white noise, it does seem to track the other indexes fairly well, which suggest that it reflects some objective reality, but what does it all mean? I'd be interested in your comments.