I think it's a little more complicated than the outline given here.

My take on it:

1. The incumbent party holds more seats in the U. S. House of Representatives after the midterm election than after the preceding midterm election.

False. The Republicans may not get the House back, but they're going to take one hell of a bite out of the Democratic majority.

2. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.

Uncertain. I'm really curious to see what Hillary will do.

3. The incumbent-party candidate is the current president.

This is tied to #2.

4. There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy.

True. Not likely at this point, and if it were, it would probably be a conservative.

5. The economy is not in recession during the campaign.

Uncertain. Despite the number crunchers touting our "recovery," it's not looking good to the average voter right now, but the Presidential election's still a couple of years down the road. And if the Republicans get the House and Senate back while a Democrat is president, odds might be good for an upturn (see also: the late 90s.)

6. Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms.

False.

7. The administration has effected major policy changes during the term.

Uncertain. That's a bit fuzzy, isn't it? Major policy changes can be good or bad, and so far the one's he's "accomplished" have gotten pretty poor reviews in the polls.

8. There has been no major social unrest during the term.

True. Nothing "major," although widespread conservative protests continue, and there's a chance that the radical left will get fed up with his failure to instantly abandon the wars.

9. The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

True. So far, so good, at least for Obama. The administration in general has been a bit more iffy, and only the fawning worship of the media has prevented a lot of noise about some of his people.

10. There has been no major military or foreign policy failure during the term.

Uncertain. Obama has alienated a number of allies and encouraged a number of enemies. There is a good chance of Iran getting the bomb before 2012. Turkey is moving over to the other side, and Russia and others are dragging him around by the nose. The president is an international joke. I leave this in the "uncertain" column only out of generosity.

11. There has been a major military or foreign policy success during the term.

False. Any recent victories have been largely due to the stubborn resistance of the previous administration to people like, well, Obama.

12. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero.

False. Heh. Even the news article won't give Obama this one any more. The more of Obama's personality we see, the less charismatic it looks.

13. The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero.

Probably true. That's going to be a tough one for the Republicans, who have a shining record of running uninspiring candidates against Democrats. Still, there are some dark horses in the wings. Other than Zombie Reagan, of course.

If six or more of these statements are false, the incumbent party loses.

You count them up.

P.S. Allan Lichtman got his progressive ass handed to him in the 2006 Maryland Senate contest.