An update has been released by the Colorado School of Mines, Hubbert Center for Oil Supply Studies. The second page of Newsletter #02-3, written by Colin Campbell, Ph.D. who has been involved in the oil industry since 1958, describes the disappointing truth about how the US Geological Survey team arrives at their oil reserve estimates. He confirms that the current recession may have been triggered by rising oil prices in yr.2000, and that as we pull out of recession, prices will rise again, causing the economy to 'double dip'. This vicious cycle will continue until around 2010 when OPEC will no longer be able to increase supply to meet demand, and we enter a period of unrecoverable decline.

I say there is always a solution, if we act now. Transportation is the weakest link. The solution is ramped production of one- and two-seat commuter cars with high compression ratio ethanol or diesel engines, perhaps even direct ethanol fuel cells, and increased use of cargo trailers. Small cars and a transition to straight ethanol fuel & vegetable oil is the way to go. Greater mobility restrictions for heavier vehicles is also a good idea.