I was once chatting with an ex-chemical engineer who worked for the petroleum industry. He said
that it was impossible to accurately predict when the big oil fields in Saudi Arabia and the Persian
Gulf would be depleted. He said that it was possible the reserves in the big Saudi fields were
grossly overstated and the world could have a nasty surprise when that oil was depleted.

There was certainly an episode in the 80's when, because production limits in OPEC were being set as a fraction of national reserves, many governments such as Iran and Iraq announced miraculous increases in reserves. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil country didn't ever bother with this charade. They've always been swimming in oil.

OTOH, none of the major oil-producing countries bother to have an oil exploration organisation. Thay already have more then 20 (usually more than 50) years supply of oil. When that starts looking like it might run low, *then* they'll go look for more. Experience in other areas of the world suggests that they could double their existing reserves quite easily.

So even if the numbers are overstated wrt what is actually known, there is at least that much, and probably quite a bit more. Don't worry about running out of oil per se. Do worry about running-out of non-Arab oil, especially if the USA continues to overconsume and undertax oil, as at present.

I listened
to this story with some scepticism. Based upon that article you posted and what I've heard from
other sources, within 50 years the whole world will be dependent upon Persian Gulf oil (a horrible
thought!). I can't believe that extremely strategic information like proven reserves in the Saudi oil
fields could be kept secret.

Another question: I listened to this radio documentary about the environmental effects of old oil
fields. One of the richest oil fields in America was the Permian Basin in Texas. That oil field is now
almost completely pumped out. Supposably when there was still a little dab of oil left in the
Permian Basin, the big oil companies that originally developed the Basin sold their interests there
to much smaller companies. These smaller companies then pumped out that little remaining dab of
oil, went bankrupt and abandoned the oil fields. Now these abandoned oil wells are leaking out
deep water that is extremely saline. This very salty water kills off the local vegetation and gets into
the local water table rendering this higher ground water unusable. The radio documentary went on
to say that no one was liable for this environmental damage because the oil company that last
owned the field had gone broke. Have you heard any stories along this line? Is it true that the big
oil companies can escape liability by simply selling the oil fields to someone else? Is there anyway
to reduce the long term environmental damage from old oil wells?

Gary

There is always a way. Trouble is, it costs money.

Modern EPA legislation doesn't discriminate between original and secondary owners, as I understand it. If the secondary owners went bust, even if they signed an agreement to accept all environmental responsibility, the EPA can step-in and require the original operator to restore the damage.

I think the main problem here is that the ORIGINAL owners have also gone bust.

(In many instances onshore USA, drilling was carried out by small independents, rather than the majors).

The solution to the two problems you have raised is as follows:

1) Impose real-world taxes on energy consumption.

2) Use the income from those to intervene in oilfield environmental reparation.

3) Offer tax breaks in clause [1] vs pr-bono services provided by oil companies in clause [2].

4) Maintain strict EPA overview of the whole thing so that nobody can claim public money for cleaning-up their own private mess.

At the end of the day, the nett effect will be that everyone will pay for the general cleanup, energy efficiency and overseas dependency will improve, and the first step towards rational consumption may begin.

Of course, I don't see it happening. The USA will continue in business-as-usual mode until it's too late.

God alone knows what they will do then.