The Russians never had many more than 100,000 troops in Afghanistan at any one time. Their total battle deaths from the conflict were about 15,000, but the casualty rate among the total 600,000-odd who served in the war was on the order of 75%. As I understand it, most of the casualties were caused by disease and infections due to poor sanitation and hygiene in the field. The morale of the average Russian soldier was probably pretty low due to poor nutrition, inadequate personal kit, and growing disenchantment with the whole bloody affair. At the same time, some of the Soviet troops were quite good indeed, especially elite motorised infantry units who were more adequately provisioned, and probably the SAF units, as well.

I would expect that the logistical support for our troops will be excellent, and morale should be quite high, at least in the beginning. American forces, along with our NATO allies are well equipped and excellently trained, but only time will tell if they are tough and resolute enough to prevail on a battlefield which has been called the most difficult on Earth.

So I think we should listen long and hard to the Russian officers. On any search and destroy missions, scouting patrols, or whatever, our troops will have to go negotiate the same kinds of ambush-perfect defiles, gorges, valleys, and passes which gave the Soviets so much trouble during their attempted occupation. Hinds and Frogfeet (?) temporarily tipped the balance of power in this struggle to the Soviets, but CIA-supplied Stingers tipped it back again to the Mujahadeen, and remember, this is their backyard. They know every nook and cranny, cave and tunnel in a landscape comprised of a million rugged varients of these features. We will desperately need the services of scouts, advisors, spies and translators from the Northern Alliance.

One early indicator of our fortunes and prospects for victory will be in the reaction of the country's silent majority, if you will. If we can win over some of the population to our cause, then our chances for success will improve dramatically by virtue of this additional, irreplaceable source of intelligence.

The Taliban are a battle-hardened force of irregulars who have proven themselves to be excellent light infantry in the rugged terrain of their homeland. To prevail in the conflict ahead, the United States and its allies will need to be quick learners to develop a winning strategy and tactics against these wiley and ruthless mountain fighters.

sp