it has risen for the past two months. It's still quite a bit lower than it was last summer but the trend is upwards.

There are other encouraging trends:

Low home mortgage rates helped more people become home owners.

"In 2001, homeownership rose to an all-time record of 67.8 percent of the population, fueled by low mortgage rates," said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac. "Last year, mortgage rates were low and stable, averaging 6.97 percent. And this year, forecasts are for much of the same."

According to the traditional definition of a recession, there's a legitimate question if we're even in one. The traditional definition of a recession is two straight quarters of negative growth in GDP. We had negative growth in the 3rd quarter last year. According to recent reports, there was a modest 0.2% growth in GDP in the 4th quarter.

That isn't to say that things are rosy. Layoffs are continuing, but economists say that employment is a lagging indicator of economic activity.

Many corporations are still reporting losses or weak profits. Some big ones, like Enron and Global Crossing, have filed bankrupsy. There's the possibility of illegal or corrupt accounting practices in those cases. If so, I hope those responsible spend some hard time in prison.

In the end, 2/3rds of the economy is still driven by consumer spending. That's why consumer confidence is so important. If people are worried about losing their jobs and stop spending or cut it drastically, they can easily push the country deep into recession. It's kind of a self-fulfilling prophesy kind of thing.