Re: The problem Stratfor faces on a daily basis . . .
Stratfor offers intelligence reports to the public. That is to say they need to, on a daily basis, research reports from around the world, then predict what the next move would be, and come up with counter moves, both good and bad.
Predicting human response to anything is tricky from the start, but when you apply it to mass population, it becomes a flawed science -- what Heinlein referred to as writers of "future history." Asimov used this same technique when compiling his Foundation & Empire series.
Dan