Don't be so hard on yourself--I checked your previous posts and don't see any particular point where you were that far off. What mistake are you referring to?

And just because he's a looney doesn't mean he can't commit to a series of complex and difficult actions. Crazy, not stupid.

One point I disagree with:

...I would think people would notice someone who purchased 20 6 inch nipples, 40 caps, and a few drill bits for the holes for the wires to the initiator.

...This took time and left a trail. He had to research at least the initiators on the web, buy the initiators, buy the powder, and buy the nipples and caps, all of which conceivably could be tracked.

I can't speak for initiators or powder--I don't know the exact details of construction--but all the hardware could easily be purchased, perhaps at several stores, without raising any suspicion at all.