R. L. - "Ha the good old times of the cold war; at least it refrained (restrained - close, you get the cigar) everybody."

I predict, and I have an unblemished mixed record on these predictions, I am right about as often as I am wrong, I calls 'em as I sees 'em when my eyes are open, and calls 'em as I feel like it the rest of the time, that

The Chinese will negotiate from a very strong military position to peacefully take over Taiwan, creating something on the order of Hong Kong, and

The Chinese will de facto take over the South China Sea, at least to the extent that very little happens without China's permission, and

The Chinese will create a strong, well-publicized man-in-space-and-not-just-NEO program.

Then, the ROW will flock to the Chinese as a counter-balancing superpower. The EU may even be neutral in the matter, which would be devastating to the US.

And I don't think the US will want to mess with China. Too many of 'em. The country could absorb any amount of punishment and survive.

In the last cold war it was clear the USSR and USA could destroy each other. Since the US could not destroy China, much of the "M" in MAD would be gone, leaving the US in a strategically rotten position should the Chinese want to play that card.

What might prevent all this is the US facing a significant economic boycott, a la South Africa. Then the marching orders for US would change, as the economy would tank otherwise. (What if everyone stopped buying Boeing airplanes? Wouldn't be pleasant for a lot of the US.)

And China would still become the counter-balancing superpower.

Arf