Current Events — HabitableZone

Current Events

Jerry Pournelle on Iraq--the short version

From his website:

The Iraqi situation



We have several choices.

The Competent Imperial Way:

Invade. Take over the oil fields. Pump oil and run the world crude price down to $20 a barrel or so. Use the oil proceeds to pay for the war. Lower taxes. End the deficits. The Dow goes to 12,000 and up. Silicon Valley recovers.

The Incompetent Imperial Way:

Invade. Take over Iraq. Futz around with the oil, making sure we don't annoy our Saudi allies. Keep the world oil price up. Occupy Iraq and let a few oil companies profit from keeping oil prices up. Spend money and treasure on nation building in Iraq, with attention to how to get Sunni, Shiite, Kurd, and so forth all living together in one democratic nation. Raise taxes to cover the deficit. Hope the Dow gets to 9,000 sometime.

The Old Republic Way:

Forget Iraq, on the theory that if we don't threaten Saddam he won't have much interest in provoking us by using weapons of mass destruction. Invest heavily in new technologies to make oil prices irrelevant. Lower taxes because we don't need the big military buildup. Investments in technology and lowered involvement in overseas adventures give us technological means to increase homeland security, because Saddam isn't the only goon with weapons. Increased access to space to make missile defenses possible. Build up the fleet to keep commerce flowing, but do that at a rational pace: no deficit financing. The Dow goes to about 9,000 fairly soon and begins a 3 - 5% annual increase.

The New Republic Way:

Send Saddam an ultimatum: let the inspectors in, or else. When he evades, invade. Get in, wring his neck, dismantle his weapons factories, sell some Iraqi state property to help cover the costs, and get out. Let someone else worry about who replaces Saddam. Come home and pay attention to domestic affairs. Let the Dow take care of itself.

The Weekly Standard Way:

Invade now. Worry about what to do once we are in there. Cover ourselves with national glory. Use that to build even more free trade. Try to lower taxes but continue military buildup so that we remain a hyperpower. Look for more enemies to invade. Stabilize the Middle East so that Israel is safe. Hope that free trade stimulates the economy.

The Democratic Party Way:

Send Saddam an ultimatum: let the inspectors in, now. When he ignores it, send more sternly worded messages. Repeat as needed. Meanwhile continue investigations to show that the FBI and CIA should have realized that Al Quaeda was going to take over airplanes and crash them into the World Trade Center. Downplay the fact that they should have known it back in Clinton's presidency. Cut defense spending and spend what's saved on more domestic programs. Blame the resulting deficits on The Shrub.

The Republican Party Way:

See Competent Empire, Incompetent Empire, Old Republic, New Republic, and Weekly Standard issues, above; mix and match according to your view of who has the most influence with the President.

This is all off the top of my head, but what have I left out?

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