re: one artillery shell
Actually, the artillery shell wasn't the issue, and the premise that WMD was the only justification for war is yours and Donalds, not mine. I personally did not consider that artillery shell to be the famous Smoking Gun, although others might.
The point I was making is that the anti-war story will modify as evidence changes. If they had found fifty such shells, the phrase would have become "extensive actual newly-produced stockpiles." And so on.
I don't really understand Kay's point, since everything else he is saying in these statements shows the inevitability of Saddam becoming a threat, but there it is.