cited below that claims Kerry has a 7 point lead. The internals of that poll have been examined. It's easy to see how using the poll's own data: W leads with independents and has stronger support from Republicans than Kerry has from Democrats. It's apparent that the pollsters oversampled Democrats by a wide margin.

In the end, this is the same bunch of pollsters who last year predicted that Gray Davis would survive recall and that Bustamonte had a 5 point lead over Arnold. The final results were that Davis was kicked out of a job and Arnold beat Bustamonte by 15 points. Sounds like their polling technique isn't very accurate.