Some analysis on a recent study
From the Belmont Club.
Note that the conclusions that the NYT draws from the data aren't the only conclusions that can be made.
Remember, sources such as the New York Times and MSNBC want this war to fail. It's politics, not national security, that's the main issue. Don't ignore these sources, but check the premises and especially, check what they chose to include or leave out.
That being said, an upswing in attacks prior to elections in Iraq and Afghanistan would hardly be a surprise.