The problem that the Iraqi terrorists is facing is depletion of personnel. While we read of OUR losses frequently, we do not read of their losses nearly as often. The best guess is that, because of our superior weaponry, firepower, and training, that the terrorists have probably lost at least 40 perhaps 100 for each 1 of ours. That is a crude estimate, but probably not too far out of line. Unlike Vietnam, this is NOT a popular uprising, but one made up of three components:

1. Sadr's Shi'ite renegades
2. Al Qaeda
3. Saddam Hussein's old security force

Conservatively, figure that they have lost 20,000 and more likely 40,000. This is a rather high level of losses for such forces to sustain in such a small country. Sadr's folks have been nearly wiped out, for example.

I do not know if they can sustain the current level of losses after January. It may be that they are playing for the USA's November election. In either case, we will know by next February whether they can keep up the pace. If so, then the new Iraqi government is in for it after the USA pulls out next year. If not, then the new government has a chance to establish itself.