I think we're basically agreeing. My thought is that the full scale of the Soviet demise wasn't clear enough yet in 1989 for Station to be completely dropped, since there was still some of the competion angle and some who thought it might have some military uses. On the other hand, SEI was a better bureacratic peg on which to pivot the direction of the program than the state of play in 1992.

Bottom line is the key window of opportunity was the first Bush administration. Smaller window right when Clinton came in. Goldin was already in place and the station had recently survived a big fight in Congress so Clinton would have had put some attention and capital into it, but still change could have been made.

I wonder if that is partly behind the current Bush Vision. Not that W paid much attention to space policy at the time, but when Columbia forced the issue, I suspect some of the players from back then, and possibly Poppa Bush himself, expressed regrets for missing an opportunity to change directions.