Much of what is said there appears to be accurate, although the inferences are mildly stretched.

Remember this is just one oilfield, but an important one for Saudi and for the world.

One particular aspect I'd like to focus on is differential production. In a field as large as this (it has more oil production per day than some entire countries!), there is almost no communication from one end of the field to the other. It's like a whole cluster of independent fields, cut off by faults and permeablity barriers from each other. Therefore, although the early production areas such as Uthmaniyah may well be in the last stages of conventional oil production, other areas may be at close to virgin pressure with a fat and healthy column.

In addition, the Arabs have never felt the need to begin enhanced oil recovery, other than waterflood for pressure support. There are many more sophisticated ways to wring the last drops from a tired reservoir and one day these processes will begin in the Middle east, as they are routinely done elsewhere in the world.

Nonetheless, the data show that Saudi is moving down the track towards increasingly mature production. At some point in the next few decades, unless a LOT of money is spent on more exploration and development geology, geophysics, drilling and production engineering, then the Nation's oil production will begin to fall.

I don't think you'll ever see $20 oil again, unless there is another great world depression like the 1930's.

The world economy is growing and the world oil supply is not. That is a fact. Some extra production can be found by accelerating development of oil already found and by finding more, but we are finding smaller and harder to get oil field. Inevitably the price will go up, or at least stay up.

Plan your future on steadily increasing oil prices, but be aware that at US$80-100 per barrel in today's money (i.e. inflation-adjusted), other sources such as oil sands and oil shales become economic to produce, so that will supply a long-term price cap. (Short term price swings are unconstrained, due to the long development lead-times of the major engineering needed to produce these unconventional resources [Indeed any oil resources take several years to bring on stream], so price spikes of US$150 per gallon are possible in a bad winter scenario in about 10 years time from now.)

A cautious person might prepare for future oil shocks by installing bunkers at home to store many months supply of oil fuel. I would caution against storing gasoline at home. It is dangerously explosive, pernicious at finding leaks, and easily ignited by spark or ember. If you have or change to a vehicle that runs on Diesel, you can safely store that at home (subject to zoning laws and hazardous material handling regulations, of course). 6 months supply of diesel is possible (50 tonnes of diesel might see an average car through a whole year's driving), and would see you through that one bad winter.

If there are two or more bad winters in a row, you're on your own...
A prudent financier would simply put aside some money as an investment now to cover the future cost, but diversify your assets in a form that hedges against high oil prices!

A paranoic would prepare for a seige and the breakdown of morality...

All the abve may sound a little alarming, but don't panic. We will not run out of oil to burn in our lifetimes. Our children and grandchildren may be less fortunate, but we don't seem as a species to care much about fouling our own nest. Apart from a few bad seasons, oil will remain affordable, based on market forces alone for most of the next century.

Heaven help you if there is political interference in oil prices, though. Scenarios that would be very bad, in order of increasing alarm:

1) Consumption taxes on oil to reduce its depletion rate
2) A major war involving more oil producing countries
3) A suppliers strike like the oil shock of the 70's
4) Political action to seize production and mandate LOWER prices

(1) is not so bad. it brings some of the pain up-front and makes us slow down on the gas pedal before we hit the wall at full speed. it will make the (inevitable?) future crash a bit gentler, and a lot later

(2) Is obvious. Imagine if Saudi became embroiled in insurrection or open warfare

(3) Would likely arise in a Moslem-Jewish-Christian Politico-Religous scenario. God help us!

(4) Is the absolute worst thing that could happen. Without price incentives, exploration and development will drop while consumption rises. This would be like the Urban Legend of the Chevy with the JATO pack. We would rush, screaming, to the abyss...

I'm looking forward to the next few decades. There are going to be Interesting Times!