http://eed.llnl.gov/flow/

The first pdf document depicts all kinds of scenarios over the next 50 years, all basically dependent on a few major "mandated" (dictated?) technology advances, namely coal IGCC and nuclear HTGR to boost electrical generator efficiency to 50 percent while producing syngas hydrogen for automotive use. Also a transition to hybrid cars boosting fuel economy to 50 mpg, followed by a move to hydrogen fuel cell cars at 80 mpg. And geez, it might just work in theory.

But you know, why dictate a transition using expensive technologies with multi-decade service lives when you can dictate mass limits on non-freight motor vehicles. You could say to everyone: Your non-freight vehicle must mass less than 300 kilos and use 50 horsepower engines. Cars don't last long, they wear out quick relative to multi-hundred million dollar powerplants - the whole national fleet could be transitioned in 5-10 years! Wham! You're there!

And they completely neglected cellulosic ethanol. Pity. Stupid actually. One thing they probably got right though, freight vehicles and airlines are always going to need diesel and kerosene. Not a hell of a lot you could do there. Probably.

How to get to work without a motor vehicle (including buses) if you live 20 miles away? Wow. If you're living though that problem it's no joke. A transit strike can put people to the test on this issue. We think cities are so invulnerable. Ha!