a few comments on your scenarios:
1) I could stomach, IF the tax money was invested in helping private companies develop alternatives or transition energy sources, encouraging better vehicle standards, and not subsidize bailouts of auto companies mired in the past.
2) the battle lines could be drawn between major powers staking claim to oil producing regions. We see the pieces being moved already.
3) the embargo may come from South America or Mexico. Not as big a shock to the system, but in a tight market...
4) Agree. Without the exploration and development investment, the problem becomes more long term, creating a down time that could last a decade or more.
Good post Nick.