Chris said:

>The problem is without clear and real public support non of
>this VSE will make it thru the next administration no matter
>how much of the CEV is completed. And it doesn't matter
>which party the POTUS is in.

Chris and I are on the same side concernig Space Exploration but on opposite poles concerning the Iraq issue. In this forum I will focus on where we agree which is manned Mars exploration.

Public support for the Space Program is not really an issue. American support for Space Exploration has always been a mile wide but a 1/4 inch deep. Most Americans say they support the Space Program but don't know why. It's extremely easy to construct a "push poll" indicating that John Q. Public wants the Space Program immediately terminated and the money redirected on [name your favorite issue]. One can also construct a push poll indicating broad support for lunar and/or Mars exploration. It all boils down to carefully wording the poll and selecting the sample. The federal government continues to fund Space Exploration not because of public support but because of national security implications, e.g. attracting young people into aerospace/miltary technology careers. The trick is to convince the federal government that national security and the nation's economy would be better benefitted by a Mars program than simply another lunar Flag and Footprints exercise. I believe this is achievable through a combined strategy:

1) For the short term, immediately deemphasize the Moon after the initial landing and focus instead on transporting people to asteroids. Some asteroids are actually solid hunks of metal and have some potential for mining (obviously not economical). The delta-V to get to an asteroid is potentially less than to the lunar surface because an asteroid's gravity well is negligible. One could adopt a "Camel's nose in the tent" political strategy with asteroid exploration by going to further and further asteroids until astronauts have reached Phobos and Deimos. Images of astronauts exploring a new asteroid are more likely to hold the public's attention than the same old scene of an astronaut standing on the lunar surface next to the flag. An asteroid also represents the ultimate weapon. They're basically a clean nuke with a multi-megaton yield. One can slice off a piece of an asteroid and aim it at a city that one wants to see go away [think: "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" by Heinlein]. One can also play the old game that if we don't control the asteroids first then the Chinese or [name your favorite bad guy] will beat us to them.

Strategy 1) only gets us to Phobos and Deimos. The end goal is a permanent self sustained colony on Mars. To achieve this requires an additional strategy of equal or greater cynicism.

2) Advance consumer product technology by colonizing Mars. The Chinese are shellacing us in consumer product manufacturing. Almost by definition, consumer products are commodities that can be built by anyone with cheap enough labor. The trick is to make the manufacturing technology used by the Chinese so obsolete that it is uncompetitive. A massive R&D program on how to make a better toaster is necessary. Are we going to attract America's best-and-brightest to design toasters? No way, Jose! However are we likely to attract America's best-and-brightest to design Mars colonization technology? This is a distinct possibility. However Mars is an utterly alien world. Most common terrestrial technology will simply not work on Mars. Literally everything from toasters to light bulbs have to be rethought to work on Mars. Many of these new technologies will be so utterly weird that they will have no commerical application. However a few will revolutionize basic industries. The profit gained from these few basic technologies will revitalize America's manufacturing industry and ultimately pay the price for getting people on Mars.

Gary