I understand what futures are, Tom. I just don't see a strong connection here. A future is, by definition, separated in time from current prices; but the actual behavior of the oil "market" seems to violate causality, with realtime price increases (for today's oil) preceding the conditions that would naturally cause a price increase, often by a considerable span of time.

As for other problems in the supply chain, I would agree that the consequences of "boutique gasoline" are due to government regulation (as we in California know so well). But as for refinery capacity, the articule you linked had this to say:

Supporters of the bill said that there has not been a new refinery built in the country since 1976 and that the number of refineries has declined dramatically as smaller facilities have been shut down.

Refinery capacity today is about 16.8 million barrels a day, compared with 18.6 million barrels a day in 1981, according to the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association.

But industry leaders say there are many reasons refineries haven’t been built beyond problems with permitting and environmental requirements. For example, refineries have had a history of meager profit margins, making it difficult to attract capital.

Refinery profits have soared along with high gasoline prices this year, but there’s no assurance of stable profits in the future to attract the estimated $3 billion needed to build a new, large refinery, industry experts said.

It's my understanding that there are almost no independent refiners left, and that most refineries are owned by oil companies (e.g. producers). I have to wonder, then, whether refinery profits are being kept artificially low through book-keeping maneuvers. Oil company profits are always reliably high, and companies in that situation look for bookkeeping "sinks" in which to reduce paper profits to lower taxes. And as for capitalization, geez, $3 billion could come from the quarterly profit of a major oil company and it would still be in the black. I sense a calculated reluctance to build refinery capacity, and remember that for many years now the excuse for higher gas prices has been said to be lack of refinery capacity rather than a scarcity of crude oil. Sounds like a PR dodge to me.