I understand what futures are, Tom. I just don't see a strong connection here. A future is, by definition, separated in time from current prices; but the actual behavior of the oil "market" seems to violate causality, with realtime price increases (for today's oil) preceding the conditions that would naturally cause a price increase, often by a considerable span of time.

I don't know what people are actually paying for a barrel of oil. The only price I ever seem to see quoted in the news are the futures prices. It is natural for futures prices to anticipate the events that would effect the actual prices. That's how they work.