Easy prediction: Iraq won't plunge into an African-style ethnic clensing event.

The US will stay in Iraq until the Iraqi government asks the US to leave...And I don't see the Iraqi government asking the US to pull out all of its troops until the risk of a civil war is all but eliminated (10 years + down the road).

In the meantime, surest way for all of these conflicting interests to insure that they are not over-run by the other parties will be by asking the USA to keep its strong presence in Iraq.

When Howard Dean and the other "pull troops out now" types get to loud, the answer should always be: "We will leave Iraq when the Iraqi's are ready for us to leave Iraq and not a moment sooner."

Anything sooner (creating a stupid timetable for example) will just empower those who would like to see Iraq fall into a civil war.