OK then, I agree with the Spacedaily prediction in general but certainly not on many specifics. First of all I agree with you the US would not launch a Shuttle knowing it would be unacceptably risky. I don't think cares too much about the MS's opinion either.

What I think is the shuttle will launch. Some foam will fall. It won't be horribly serious but enough to ground the fleet once more and ultimately they will be retired.

The ISS can be finished at some future date by some yet to be developed launch vehicle. It's many years behind schedule already; it can wait until the new HLLV is ready.