I catch your drift, O clever one, but we are picking up on general patterns, insights, clues. We are not making specific predictions or flat statements and then setting policy on them.
Of course, learning where to draw the line between the two is a bitch, but that's always been my whole point.
As Tainter pointed out, the Roman Emperors were not able to stop the collapse even though for the most part they were competent and conscientious administrators who were well aware of what was going on. They were only able to postpone it, even if by only making it worse when it finally came!
By the way, I don't necessarily subscribe to Tainter's views. I just think they are valid observations and it would be wise to keep them in mind. He himself does not suggest any specific policy changes or alternatives.
That's where most "theories of history" break down, like Marx. Great in theory, unforeseen consequences in practice. They give excellent explanations of what is happening, and often suggest useful solutions to isolated problems, but when implemented as an ideological program, usually lead to disaster. One size does not fit all.
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Re: Collapse of complex societies
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- Collapse of complex societies