"The whole ARWR argument is really just a ploy to trick the The whole ARWR argument is really just a ploy to trick the Saudi's into pumping more oil and keeping the price artificially low. into pumping more oil and keeping the price artificially low."

The Saudi's can't "pump more oil" than the Americans can.
The only way to increase oil production is have and use better technology of getting higher yields from existing fields, or finding more oil by exploration.
To increase the production from an existing field, requires investment- additional money spent with expectation profits.
To imagine the Saudis just need to turn a tap suggests that Saudis have little desire of making money. It's hard to conceive of any oil producer at the current price of crude, not to be having "taps" wide open and at same time trying to find ways of economically increasing production.
No one knows what the price of crude oil will be in 6 months, and in a year time even less is known, 2 years even less, etc.
For the Saudis to increase their yearly production by say 25% it will cost billions of dollars in infrastructure cost. Each year they they don't use their existing infrastructure with highest efficiency means even if oil prices were constant, they would lose millions of dollars in infrastructure cost [it ages and wear out and needs maintenance plus the investment money needed to built it in the first place] and billions of dollar in lost money from selling less oil yearly. Over the years would add up to large sums of money. Now, Saudi's existing infrastructure had engineers calculate the scale of the infrastructure needed to make the most amount of money [highest rate of oil production for least infrastructure cost]. It's possible that new technology and new knowledge about the oil fields [and new fields] could change the estimation of capacity of the infrastructure.

Next, we don't know how much oil is in ANWR. All we could have is estimations. The best estimations still need oil exploration to determine how much oil is there. The best way to know if there is a possibility of a large oil deposit there is for govt to sell the right to extract it. If the experts think there isn't much there, they will not bid on it- why would they?