Supposition # 3 total Hogwash
>"3. If Saudi Arabia falls, it will fall to radical muslims who will be deeply hostile to the US and will use their oil production to exert unacceptable leverage on the US and the West."
If hindsight is 20/20 vision, I have no idea where you get this "ridiculous" notion from.
Even on a good day, we have protected the Saudis....ALWAYS.
Even if their royal families are taking down our Twin Towers.
Even if we in a nationwide stand down, we will STILL fly their royal families out of the US.
Even if a 2 bit dictator decides to crush their borders.
Supposition #3 just doesn't fly.
I hate to even guess who this is.