Sorry. Did I miss a number in the report? Math wrong?
Please point it out.
Then open the CBO report again, turn to page 25 and 26, and read it carefully. Particularly this:
CBO and JCT have endeavored to develop estimates that are in the middle of the distribution of potential outcomes. One way to assess the range of uncertainty around the estimated effects of the legislation is to compare previous projections with actual results. For example, some aspects of CBO and JCT’s projections of health insurance coverage and related spending made in July 2012 (after the Supreme Court issued a decision that essentially made the expansion of the Medicaid program under the ACA an option for states) can be compared with actual results for 2016. Projected spending on people made eligible for Medicaid because of the ACA was about 60 percent of the actual amount. The number of people predicted in 2012 to purchase insurance through the marketplaces in 2016 was more than twice the actual number. The decline in the number of insured people from 2012 to 2016 was projected to be 23 million, and the decline measured in the National Health Interview Survey turned out to be 20 million. CBO and JCT have continued to learn from experience with the ACA and have endeavored to use that experience to improve their modeling.
That comparison of projections with actual results and the great uncertainties surrounding the actions of the many parties that would be affected by the legislation suggest that outcomes of the legislation could differ substantially from some of the estimates provided here. Nevertheless, CBO and JCT are confident about the direction of certain effects of the legislation. For example, spending on Medicaid would almost surely be lower than under current law. The cost of the new tax credit would probably be lower than the cost of the subsidies for coverage through marketplaces under current law. And the number of uninsured people under the legislation would almost surely be greater than under current law.
That second paragraph is the only thing you can safely take to the bank in this report. Previous CBO reports on this subject were wildly wrong on the exact numbers, and not in Obamacare's favor.
Yes, fewer people will be insured. A lot of them will be because the government is no longer forcing them to buy insurance. 24 million is not an accurate number.
Then maybe we can start dealing with the real issue, which is not how many people have an insurance policy, but how many people have an insurance policy that doesn't suck.
Life is great under Obamacare if you qualify for a subsidy. The rest of us, not so much.
