What worries me most is that the only successful model that has kept us in business in the US has been continual growth, both in GDP along with the necessary population increase to sustain that.

The problem with the growth model though is that as population grows past the resources, things get outrageously expensive, quality of life deteriorates, real estate becomes scarce and the great nation starts moving towards third world status.

In other discussions on the Zone about the effect of the war on the economy, one thing was left out. The horrendous but positive effect a war has on an area is to thin the herd. War deaths create opportunities for those left behind. Jobs don't just open up temporarily as they do for the soldiers that go away and then return to their positions. Those jobs are now permanently available to their remaining countrymen. Often, despite the physical damage to a war-ravaged country, their economies rebound quickly. Obviously this is not the way any rational human wants to attain economic growth though.

Instead, we somehow have to come up with a way to stem population growth worldwide, perhaps even reverse it and slowly begin readjusting our economic model to reflect the huge cultural change. It's a monumental task but I think it's obvious where we're headed if this isn't done. Just look at any of the countries that suffer from overpopulation. Despite having a cheap and abundant workforce, the quality of life in those countries is despicable with a gap between the rich and poor shockingly wide.

I actually see real hope in this nation of attacking the growth model. Recent studies shows a weakening of the major religions which I blame for being very out of touch about birth control and stemming population growth. If one looks into any country where Catholicism is the major religion, huge families are a common sight. Mexico will never evolve into a stable region unless the influence of the Catholic church is diminished. India will always have problems with overpopulation until the stranglehold of Hinduism is diminished. As good as the intentions might be for Christian missionaries to go help in struggling African nations, I believe help would be better delivered through secular relief missions. Religions use a push for their members to dump out children as a way to fill their rolls even if that might not be their stated purpose.

Moving away from a growth model in finance is a difficult task because it eliminates the easy way. How simple is it to build a business with x amount of customers in your area knowing that those customers and your profits will naturally build as the population in your area goes up. How tough will it be to convince entrepreneurs that their design must be completely sustainable for the current population and that there's a finite limit to how big their business may become in that area? If the area is already saturated for the current customer base, it is idiotic to try to hone in unless the product you offer is completely unique.

The entire real estate industry is changed drastically in a zero population growth design. No longer can one count on the value of property to go up as land becomes more scarce. The construction industry shifts from new building to rebuilding and has to shrink a great deal.

Populations become heavier for older age groups and the retirement age has to rise accordingly. Health care becomes a huge employer hopefully subsidized entirely by the government without the scourge of the health insurance businesses.

Of course we can be saved from this huge culture change by a number of factors, none of which are really appealing - a massive pandemic, an asteroid strike, climate calamity, or a global war that kill off a huge segment of the world population. After the dust settles opportunities for growth will once again abound. Maybe that's the Republican plan after all.

Art