Flame — HabitableZone

Flame » in reply to Not a particularly unlikely feat.

According to some political analysts, the real coup de grace for the Republicans...

will be when the state of Texas flips from red to blue, in a few more election cycles.

There are many, many trends which are driving this inevitable change in Texas, from rapidly growing black and Hispanic populations, better and better state-wide organization for the Democrats, to the increasing Democratic strength among young and female voters, and not insignificantly the passing on of many older Reagan Democrats who habitually vote Republican.

Not a question of if, rather of when.

2012 - Texas probably still leans Republican, but only by single digits.

2016 - it's a bona fide toss up state

2020 - Texas is a true blue state, and wil be for at least a generation

The big trouble for Republicans is that without Texas' 30+ EV, it's game over - they simply have no viable path to a 270 majority and the White House. Start your calculations with California, New York, Texas, Illinois, New Jersey firmly in the Democratic candidate's column, and then just try to find a way for the Republican to get to 270. Damn near impossible.

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