"You also underestimate the power of the human species when it comes to self-preservation. "

I am talking about the increase risk to people living on Earth.
I am not really talking my beliefs or feelings in this regard.
We live in a far more dangerous world today, then we did 200 yer ago- in some aspects.
But despite whatever increased risks in certain areas, there is no doubt in my mind that today is better than 200 years ago.

I don't think the idea that earth will be destroyed, and therefore we need people living on the Moon or Mars, is particularly appealing selling point for earthlings.
Preservation of Earth itself is pretty darn important.
And it's the well being of earthlings which will decide whether not we should go into space. But if there is not benefits to earthlings that justifies the cost of opening the space frontier, then we should not open the space frontier.

I believe there are enormous benefits to Earthlings which will result from opening the space frontier. I am merely saying that there is argument against such an idea. I not saying this argument could be decisive in the matter, but I think it can not be ignored- it should be addressed and discussed and resolved as much as is possible.

Let me put it this way, this issue is already on the table and it is already had a enormous affect upon opening the space frontier. Merely denying this, is dumb.

"Humans will choose life over suicide if there are options to problems. That
includes living in space and on other worlds."

But I don't believe it's true, that there is only a stark choice of either space or suicide.
Particularly if you talking about the next 20 years. And then at 20 years in future, the next 20 years, etc.
Or let me put it this way, we not acting as though there was this stark choice.
Let me compared to global warming, some people say there is this similar stark choice. The people that actually claim this don't even believe what they are saying

"I also predict whether anyone likes it or not, once we actually get a real foothold in the Final Frontier (assuming private industry gets its act together for starters), plenty of disenfranchised groups of humans will flee for the outer regions of the Sol system and beyond. "

I don't think the reason we aren't opening the space frontier is DUE to the private industry not getting it's act together. I think that perhaps private industry needs to prepare more for this possibility in the near future. I think more very wealthy people could spend money in this area. I think the public in general could spend more more money in this area.
But for instance, I don't think there is minable water on the Moon, AT THIS POINT in time. In other words I do not hold the idea that the private industry is or has failed to to exploit this potential resource.

Once it's determined whether or not there is minable water on the Moon, then we will see if the private industry will fail in this regard- but I don't think it will.

"Some groups will fail, some will prosper, and some will probably come in
contact with other intelligences who may also be running away from the
conditions at home."

I think it's mostly about seeking new opportunities, rather than fleeing to some place. Mexicans aren't fleeing Mexico as much as looking for new opportunities in America. Though you will get people who simply want get away from civilization- whether it's a bad civilization or simply any kind civilization. And there would be those who simply want to retire in space- similar to going to Florida