I agree that history is subjective in many areas, and of course is filtered through many sources (history is "written by the winners" is an old saying. More often it is written by people with agendas.) Still, like any chaotic phenomenon where you accumulate enough data from enough different sources, you can sometimes see consistent patterns develop and repeat over the centuries. Even then, you have to be careful that you aren't imposing those patterns yourself.

Constantly, "unknown unknowns" throw themselves into the historical mix. In the "Foundation" series, the gimmick was a science that allowed rigid analysis of large populations to predict the future accurately. In the books, this was screwed up when an unknown factor, "The Mule," came into the picture.

In the real world, there are "Mules" coming into the picture almost every week. Billions of people. New technologies and ideas. Natural disasters. You name it. Missing horseshoe nails aren't the exception in history, they're the rule.

Any Hari Seldon that claims to be able to steer human society is pretty much screwed right out of the box.

The more history you know, the better. There are few other areas where a "little knowledge" is more dangerous. I wish I knew a lot more than I do.

Thanks for the book references! The first one is out of print, but is available used.