The news warns us every day that Hurricane Season is from June to November, the implication being that a storm hitting the Gulf of Mexico before the oil spill is cleared up could be catastrophic. Well, I guess it could be, but for those of you folks who aren't familiar with this area, let me give you the perspective of a long-time resident.

For starters, even though the season lasts half the year, historically, storms tend to be concentrated towards the end of it. You can look up the distribution yourself, but the first two or three months tend to be pretty quiet. In the fall, the probability jumps way up, in a weird bimodal fashion. In short, there is probably a pretty good possibility that the Gulf won't get a major storm before the well is finally capped. Knock on wood.

Secondly, overall marine weather in hurricane season is usually pretty good, except, of course, when a hurricane is actually in the area kicking butt. There are no fronts coming through, or "northers" and things are usually pretty docile this time of year, except for the occasional afternoon squall and thunderstorm.

Tropical storm activity short of 75 mph+ hurricane force is always possible, and you will no doubt hear terms like "waves", "disturbances", or gales, all of which have the potential of evolving into full-fledged cyclonic storms, but usually don't. These present a threat to the ships operating in the area now combating the spill, and it may be necessary for those vessels to maneuver to avoid storm damage, forcing them off-station. But unless a big storm actually develops, the fleet should be back at work after a few days. A really big storm, of course, is a threat to any vessel, no matter how seaworthy, almost guaranteeing some damage if it gets caught in the worst of it. But today, with satellite monitoring, etc, this is unlikely.

As far as the potential and frequency of storms, the news is a bit bleaker. Everyone is predicting a really bad year, although long-term forecasts for the last several years have been pretty inaccurate, all over the ball park. Still, the authorities are expecting the worst this season because water temperatures are extremely high for this early in the summer, particularly after an especially cool winter.

Floridians know better than to rely too much on predictions in hurricane season, but the upshot is that if this well can be capped by August, as we expect, there's a good chance we may miss the worst case scenario the press loves to dwell on. And remember, even in the worst season, most locations in the Gulf, Caribbean and South Atlantic DON"T suffer a hit from a hurricane. There's even a good chance the Gulf won't get any heavy weather at all. Let's keep our fingers crossed.