Does anyone think this will happen?

1962 - oil discovered worldwide peaked, new discoveries declining every year since
1970 - oil production in USA peaked, declining every year since, hence the term "Hubbert Peak"
2000 - domestic oil production in USA down 31.4 percent since it peaked in 1970
2000 - US President Bush predicts 60% increase in energy consumption over next 20 years
2001 - oil discovered worldwide was 8 billion barrels, consumption was 27 billion barrels
2001 - Suncor pulls out of Australian shale oil project, unable to meet environmental standards
2002 - Caspian Sea oil reserves estimate revised downward 300 bbl to just 7.8 bbl (97% lower)

Some more references:

BP Energy Statistics
The Hubbert Peak of Oil Production
Colorado School of Mines Hubbert Center for Petroleum Supply Studies
Article Caspian Sea Oil Estimated Revised Downwards
International Workshop on Depletion of European Oil Reserves
European Union Subsidizes Coal

The skeptics often point to articles like the following that are released by supposedly reputable agencies:

US Geological Survey

Quote:
"There is still an abundance of oil and gas in the world," said Thomas Ahlbrandt, USGS World Petroleum Assessment project chief. "Since oil became a major energy source about 100 years ago, about 539 billion barrels of oil have been produced outside of the U.S. We now estimate the total amount of future technically recoverable oil, outside the U.S., to be about 2120 billion barrels."

These people are really subtle with words. The first sentence states the context, that is estimates include both oil AND natural gas. After that all estimates for recoverable oil are actually in terms of "oil equivalent barrels", that is energy equivalence. They say that number is 2120 billion barrels. I say that amounts to little more than 1000 billion barrels of real oil and the rest is natural gas. Note also that the last sentence says "technically recoverable", not "economically recoverable". These are the same people that stated up until last year that there are as many as 300 billion barrels of oil in the Caspian Sea region.

It is really their method that is stupid: pure statistics. You see, there is a 95% probability that the Caspian Sea region contains 7.8 billion barrels of oil. There is a 75% probability that is contains 20 billion barrels, there is a 5% probability that it contains 200 billion barrels, and so on.... pure garbage. After what has happened with the Caspian Sea estimates you know how much probabilities are worth in reality. You can't manufacture enough drilling platforms to get all the oil out, it would become the only industry in existence. We wouldn't have any time to do anything else. And besides, at some point you would burn more energy than you get out, and it would be impossible to continue, unless it was done over a longer duration - too long to pay people for so little production.

Also, "oil equivalent barrels" of natural gas doesn't translate into application. You can't easily make gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel out of natural gas (not that I am aware of anyway). Some vehicles burn compressed natural gas, but usually only large vehicles like buses because the storage tanks are so large. Also, demand for natural gas for electrical generating stations already outstrips supply, so don't expect huge quantities to be diverted to the transportation market.

Take a look at the following graph found in the USGS publication:

Most people would be inclined to look at the top of each bar and add up the totals, giving 5232 billion barrels oil equivalent in the world, right? Wrong! The green parts represent oil already produced - and consumed - so that's gone, doesn't exist anymore. The purple areas represent the stuff that we're 95% sure we can pump out of the ground. Above that we get into the lower probabilities: brown section represents potential growth from oil that is not currently economically recoverable. So we would need damn good economic incentives, and no doubt relaxed or non-existent regulations to get at it. Don't bet on improved technology, this is not the electronics industry we're talking about. Next are the blue sections of the graph representing "undiscovered" oil. LOL! I still can't get over the terminology! This is nothing but a sales technique - the expectation of more, of richness, of oil a-plenty that industry wants to instill in consumers. It gets people to think less about how much they are consuming, after all there is a neverending supply. It's fluff. Pure BS.

So what's left? About one trillion barrels of oil, and the same "energy equivalent" barrels of natural gas. Those are the numbers that my analysis are based on, roughly, and the same numbers provided by British Petroleum. Again, I refer to my webpage for my analysis (unless you've already read it).

My Webpage

You might also note that the estimated one trillion barrels of oil left in the world include tar sands, shale, and natural gas liquids (NGL). Suncor abandoned a shale oil project in Australia in april 2001 because they couldn't extract the oil and maintain minimum environmental standards. In fact they were being sued by area residents for that reason. Alberta has about 2 years of cheap oil left and will probably be mixing in 75% tar sand & shale oil by 2004-2005. I am guessing that only a small fraction of Alberta's reported reserves (almost totally tar sand & shale) are recoverable. As such we might see them downwardly revising their reserve estimates as time goes on.

Shale oil can produce regular oil but it is energy intensive. You have to pressure the shale oil to about 100 psi and apply heat about 100 degC. Then you end up with a few barrels of high sulfur oil which can then be used to manufacture petrol. Trouble is it is marginal as to weather you get as much energy out as you have to put in - net energy return is zero. If you want a net energy gain you use the raw unprocessed stuff, and that is only good as boiler fuel. So perhaps you can generate electricity with it, with associated pollution, but I don't think shale oil and tar sands will produce quality motor vehicle fuel in the amounts that are being advertised.

Does anyone have opinions on any of the above?