>We need to do it ourselves

I agree.

I'm not a NASA basher, but I don't actually expect them to make much progress. They have provided important existence proofs in many areas, and a wealth of technical knowledge, and for that I am grateful. Of course they are going to waste billions of dollars. They are a government agency, after all.

Unlike a lot of folks in the space community, I feel pretty good about the prospects for the future. If someone else comes along and does spectacular things, well, great. If not, I'll get there myself.

I have more resources than most, but I'm not in Walt Anderson's league, let alone that of the conventional aerospace companies. Key to our plan and progress is going about things like a "rich hobbyist" instead of a "poor aerospace company", and picking plans that don't require a hand-waving miracle to occur at some point (like "and then investors provide XXX million dollars").

"Rocket Science" has been mythologized out of all proportion to its true difficulty. Sure, it has challenges, but so do all industries. It is not beyond the ken of mortal men to build a rocket ship, but you do need to start actually making things. A diverse set of skills is needed, but skills can be learned. Lots of people build planes in their garages, and it does not have to be as big a step as most would imagine to go from there to rocket vehicles.

Regulatory issues may yet be a problem, and are indeed on the critical path, but just today I got clearance for us to conduct low altitude (4500') manned rocket tests in Oklahoma. We can work our way up from there, demonstrating competence that should make AST applications go easier.

I think things are moving along nicely. I stand by my prediction -- manned space (100km) shots by the end of 2003, for under a million dollars expended in development. I'm not yet ready to hazard a time or money guess on more ambitious goals, but see http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=en&group=sci.space.tech&selm=c0e0a1dd.0202250154.74ddb987%40posting.google.com for some thoughts on the next step.

John Carmack
www.armadilloaerospace.com