I previously estimated that a 14 GHz processor would outstrip the speed requirements of nearly any computer-aided design application, just like they have already outstripped the need for any improvements with word processing. That is when wages really start to decrease. Computers that fast will probably be available in less than 5 years:
Currently 2 GHz is available and 14 GHz is 7-times faster..... so how many times does the speed double before reaching seven-times the original speed?
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Moore's Law Extrapolation:
2^(x) = 7
x = ln(7)/ln(2)
x = 2.8 doubling periods (4.2 years, circa Spring 2006 AD)
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I think by that time I will be so buried in paperwork, and paid so little, that it will be time to move on. So I am thinking I should get some experience either operating or maybe even building & overhauling some big pieces of machinery. Something that ordinary people won't be able to afford, say turbogenerators, or maybe cement mixing. As long as it isn't mainly electronic I'll always have a lucrative skill. What do you think?
Space/Science » in reply to Don't worry.
Re: My estimate
The whole thread (23 posts)
- Computers get faster and faster
