I really hate to say this, but a manned landing mission to mars is not going to happen, for a very long time.

Here's why:

In the same way the US military is haunted by the mistakes it perceives were made regarding the prosecution of the war in southeast Asia, I believe there is a very strong sentiment in government to never repeat Apollo.

All of the "near term" proposals (Mars manned landing) that I've seen, fit the Apollo profile, in that they would essentially be "rock baggers".

Suppose we use the Russian model, it seems likely that planners would include a duplicate backup mission, in the event of tragedy or success. So we would get two shots.

Those two missions would, successful or not, inspire and thrill everyone who wasn't made out of wood. If successful, they might provide sufficient motivation to fund an expanded exploration infrastructure.

Perhaps, but that did not happen with Apollo.

No offense to anyone posting in this thread, but after all the spin, I think the ISS analogy, though rough, is a valid one.