there's no such thing as 100% certainty, especially in wartime. Actually, that isn't true. There is one thing that is 100% certain in every war - despite all of the best intelligence, best weapons, and best of intentions, innocent people are going to suffer and die in war. To expect otherwise is to deny reality.

In Afghanistan as in every other battle area, "the fog of war" is always a factor that can't be discounted. Leaders have to make their best decisions on incomplete and even conflicting data. If they're right then they're heros. If they're wrong, then they're goats. If they sat around waiting for 100% certainty, they could never do anything at all.

"War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty."

- Carl von Clausewitz, "On War"