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Re: US and a Two Front War

The United States went into the Gulf War bombarded by dire predictions that the invincible Republican Guard fanatics would send tens of thousands of Americans home in body bags. We went through Iraq's finest like an M-1 tank over a basket of kittens,* rolled towards Baghdad, and solely by previous agreement with coalition members, turned around and went home. We could have erased Baghdad on a whim, without nukes, and shot Saddam in a ditch if we had wanted to, and everyone knew it.

The United States went into Afghanistan, and tore the Taliban up by the roots and tossed it out of the country. We did it slowly and carefully, picking our way along, trying to minimize military casualties on our side, and civilian casualties on the Afghanistan side. Had we not been concerned about civilians, we could have erased Afghanistan in a week. Without nukes. And everyone knew it.

If the United States goes into Iraq, there is a very good chance that we will wipe out the opposition almost effortlessly. As in Afghanistan, the difficulty will be minimizing collateral damage and casualties, a luxury that only a very powerful nation can afford.

And everyone knows it.

In the quietest part of the night, after midnight and before dawn--the Hour of the Wolf--world leaders around the planet are hit by a very uncomfortable thought.

The United States of America may well be able to easily defeat any hostile nation on the planet in a military conflict, including China, currently the most powerful of them.

China currently has about two dozen missiles that can hit the United States and maybe one ballistic missile submarine--small wonder they scream like banshees when we talk about missile defenses. As a last resort, they could launch them--they would have to launch them all since a retaliatory strike would wipe out their launch sites--and let's say they all somehow manage to hit their targets. Which targets? Cities? That would do the most psychological and economic damage but that's not where we keep our missiles and military power. Hardened missile silos? What about the American subs? Where would YOU deliver a knockout blow to the entire continental U.S. if you had two dozen missiles? Even with MIRVs you have a problem.

And when all your silos are empty, you have an exceedingly good chance of looking up and seeing a red-eyed, enraged bull elephant with a couple of bleeding bullet holes in its vast sides.

And what will Russia do when you have shot your wad? Or after the United States has swept your regime and its armies off the planet? Hell, the Chinese themselves would probably cheerfully divide themselves up into about sixty tiny nations and just go on from there.

The biggest problem the U.S. will have is not being able to build weapons fast enough.

In the Hour of the Wolf, the Chinese leaders know who's in charge on this planet. So does Saddam, and so do the leaders of all the other punk nations that talk big in the daytime.

*Sorry about the image, but this is almost literally what happened to their armies

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