...an honest person could only answer: "I don't know!"

I can tell you from personal experience that paranoid schizophrenics are the people who most believe that they can figure out the truth of things based solely on a) what seems reasonable, plus b) logic. Reasonableness is a sliding scale that means one thing to one person and another to another. I guarantee that what seems reasonable to you will not seem so to Saddam and vice versa. And neither of your views of reasonableness will exactly coincide with Bush's.

That's why hypothetical arguements are usually laughed out of court. What is persuasive is tangible evidence, not what people think (or what people think other people think).

Personal gut feeling: when we know all the facts, parts of the story still won't make sense.