Last night I was listening to a KCBS interview with a California politics mavin who is also a professor at San Jose State. He made or implied several interesting points. Some highlites:

1) To get elected, Arnold made several promises that requires the cooperation of the Legislature (that isn't going to happen). Unless Arnold attacks Proposition 13 directly, there's no way he can get California's budget crisis resolved. Proposition 13 is a political booby trap (it's a sacred cow for the right wing). Davis was a consumate poltician but did not dare touch Proposition 13. There's a very high probability that Arnold is a "flash in the pan" and merely a distraction. The real opportunity for change will take place with the next regular election for governor.

2) Cruz Bustamonte's real political agenda may not have been to be elected governor by the recall but merely to heighten his own name recognition (he had none before) and cement his relationship with his own power base, e.g. the Indians and Latinos. Bustamonte is now well placed to run for governor in the next regular election for governor. Bustamonte will also be in a better position to attack Proposition 13 after Arnold exhausts all of his political coin in a failed attempt fighting against it.

3) Like Bustamonte, McClintock had no real name recognition prior to the recall. McClintock came out of the recall process looking very good. He stuck to his principles and did not reveal any major political handicaps, e.g. big campaign contributions from the gambling lobby. Barbara Boxer, who is arguably America's worst US Senator, is a prime target for removal in the next election. McClintock is now well placed to be the next US Senator for California (he would be far better than Boxer which doesn't say much).

Ironically, by winning the recall, Arnold may have "terminated" his own short political career by placing himself in an impossible (no-win) situation.

Gary