Perhaps I'm getting overly pessimistic, but I'm coming to the conclusion that 10-20 years from now, we'll still be no closer to getting out of LEO than we are today, and maybe even worse. One the one hand, we have different factions of the space community tearing down each other and different aspects of Bush's proposals because it doesn't fit their view of the "perfect" plan.
On the other side, we have a good percentage of the population who see the space program this way. If I had to guess, they probably equal or outnumber the space community. Take a look at a couple recent op-ed pieces in favor of Bush's proposal from OpinionJournal, such as this one and this one by Homer Hickam of "October Sky" fame. Now, read through the responses to those columns here and here. While hardly a scientific poll, many of those responses should give us pause.
Getting even Bush's plan through is going to be a tough sell, especially when it faces such opposition from within our own ranks. If this one dies, why should he or any subsequent president even bother with another proposal only to be attacked by both the outright opponents and the space community itself.
The perfect is the enemy of the good, perhaps now more than ever.
Here's what we're up against
