"Russia and particularly China both have amajor geopolitical interest in the existence of a North Korean buffer state. They therefore reject excessively hard-hitting sanctions, which could cause the total collapse of the mismanaged, starving country and trigger refugee flows –probably primarily towards the northeast of China. Both states also proclaim a particularly high level of understanding for North Korea’s calls for comprehensive security guarantees. On this point, they urge appropriate movement by the USA and callfor less harsh rhetoric in future. Beijingand Moscow want neither the collapse ofthe regime nor a North Korea which plays with nuclear weapons and is thus totally unpredictable, something which would give Taiwan and Japan a pretext to arm themselves with nuclear weapons. It is certainly gratifying that China is at last becoming active on the North Korea issue, having pursued a policy of non-intervention for many years. However, it is hard to assess what influence China actually has on Pyongyang. On the one hand, China’s cooperation on energy and grain supplies to North Korea is of vital significance, buton the other it is no secret that, under the successor to the extremely pro-China KimIl Sung, the pro-Chinese forces in theNorth Korean regime have lost much of their influence."
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