It seems to me that the faith that we'll always be able to adapt and survive is also a case of linear extrapolation. Both you and Tom cite past failures of prediction, and past successful adaptation to change, as if that proves that we always will be able to adapt and survive in the future. But the unexpected can happen and present us with changes too severe to handle, at least as we've handled everything in the past.
The dinosaurs had a nice long run, adapting as they went to a gradually-changing environment. Then the meteor hit, and things changed beyond their capability to adapt.
We're all prone to the anthropic principle, since we're all descended from an unbroken chain of survivors. But complacency is a deadly trap for a species. We need eternal vigilance, and we can't take survival for granted.
I was talking about the general issue in an earlier thread with you and Tom. The key thing here is the effects of raising the standard of living of all humanity up to First World levels. Increasing humanity's total resource consumption by a factor of 15, the equivalent of 225 billion people by mid-century, represents a change of circumstances that may well be too severe to be handled by routine application of what's worked in the past, particularly the vague faith that "technology will provide". Maybe, but it's not guaranteed. It's one hell of a gamble to just sit back and hope that somebody, somewhere, will whip out an invention to save our bacon once again. It only takes one insoluable problem to kill us.
Off Topic » in reply to Sounds like the predictions from the Club of Rome back in 1972
linear metathinking
The whole thread (44 posts)
- Is the Party coming to an end?
- re: When the lights will go out
- Sounds like the predictions from the Club of Rome back in 1972
- Undoubtedly