re: a hypothetical
I believe the most likely form of use of force against Iran would be sanctions, probably enforced by a blockade, which IMO would be much more effective than bombing hardened nuclear sites, and would draw any military action that resulted out to sea where civilian casualties would be unlikely.
I also believe that this kind of force would not be done by "surprise," since sanctions and blockades by definition have to be part of a series of escalating and very public ultimatums, probably through the U.N.
The "October Surprise" theory is making the rounds right now, but I doubt that anyone really thinks that going to war with Iran would suddenly make the Republicans the most popular kids on the block unless they're smoking something.