"What would our intelligence agancies know about it anyway..."
Why, did they suddenly turn into geniuses? What have our intelligence agencies been RIGHT about over the last fifteen years?
Incidentally, the same NIE, written before Zarqawi was killed, also said that "perceived jihadist success there [Iraq] would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere." and "should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight."
Was that right too?