No I wouldn't be surprised if something is going on with these captured Iranian roadside bombs and Stinger-type missiles. But there's more to this than meets the eye. No, I wouldn't doubt for a moment the Iranians are capable of this, but I don't think it's them. Second, I do not think this is some American plot to escalate the war or justify a strike against Iran, either. Here's why we can rule those out.

The last thing the Iranians want is to go to war with the US, they are fulfilling their political goals just fine with the status quo as it is, and they don't want to give the US an excuse to take out their nukes. The US doesn't want war either, it already has its hands full in Iraq and a big conventional land war in Asia is the last thing it needs, stretched as thin as it is. Besides, the Bush administration's international credibility is so bad right now they wouldn't be believed by anyone, certainly not the American people, even if they told the truth; they certainly aren't going to get away with a lie. No, you can rule out a Bush conspiracy.

There is one fact no one seems to be mentioning; these weapons have been traced back to Iran by their serial numbers and other markings. Does this make any sense? If Iran was doing this, they would have the smarts to file off those numbers, sure we'd still know they were theirs, but we wouldn't have the smoking gun evidence. My guess is there is a third party involved in this, and let me name off the suspects in decreasing order of credibility...

The weapons were floating around in the international arms market and they're just now getting to Iraq.

Weapons delivered by Iran to their client states and terror organizations in the MidEast are leaking through to Iraq.

Rogue elements in the Iranian military and intelligence circles are stirring up a little trouble on their own. Maybe even to discredit Ahmedinajad, but more likely because they just hate Americans.

Criminal elements in Iran have stolen the weapons and are selling them to the highest bidders. Like Al-Quada and the Shiite militias.

Some state which has an interest in war breaking out between the US and Iran is behind this, either Russia, China, some Sunni Arab country, or Israel. My vote is for the Sunni Arab theory, but the others can't be ruled out.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.