Current Events — HabitableZone

Current Events » in reply to Problem with your graph

A valid point
TB — (archived)

And in fact, that occurred to me.

The graph shows a near-doubling of home sales after a relatively flat period between the mid 1980s and the mid 1990s. Obviously, nothing like this was happening to the population, and for that matter, the economy (I would really like a graph that went further back, but this one was hard enough to find).

Prices also ran away in the past few years.

The rational conclusion is that housing prices and sales have risen higher than conventional market forces should have taken them, and that a normal correction is long overdue. The current number is at around 6 million (not shown on the graph) and is probably nearing a level where it ought to be in normal economic behavior. Note that the current level, while lower than it was, is about where it was during the 1999-2000 economic boom.

I think prices and sales are coming down. I don't think this is a "crash," although some people who got a bit too enthusiastic with their equity might be in a crack.

Smart people would never re-finance their existing home to anything close to its full value in the current market. I have pulled a lot of cash out of my house, but not as much as I was offered by a long shot. As a result, even if my home value dropped in half, I could still make money by selling it.

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